May 8 Market Update

Bull Trap?

May 8 Market Update

I think something might be brewing here. That drop in TLT today could be signaling trouble ahead. The bond market looks like it’s bracing for more pressure, and that might spill over into equities.

Once again, bulls failed to reclaim 5700. That’s now two rejections at the same level, and we’ve dropped back into the upper part of the previous range. If this weakness holds, I’m watching for a move down to retest the 5550s. That would be the most logical target after repeated failures up top.

This week’s economic data didn’t help bulls either. Inflation is still at 2.4% and not showing enough progress for the Fed to pivot. On top of that, fresh tariffs could reignite price pressures. Powell made it clear they’re not ready to cut until they see more consistent signs of inflation moving toward their 2% goal.

With sticky inflation, rate cuts off the table for now, and multiple failed attempts to break higher, the setup is starting to lean in favor of the bears.

🧭 Market Outlook – ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures)

The S&P E-mini is starting to tilt bearish after multiple signs of weakness emerged on the chart.

• Failed Breakout at Weekly Highs (5724.8):
  The market attempted to push above the weekly high twice—and failed both times. This double rejection signals strong seller presence at the top of the range.

• Support at 5671.8 Lost:
  A key mid-range support level gave way. What once served as a launchpad for bulls is now broken, shifting momentum to the downside.

• Volume Profile Imbalance:
  We’re breaking beneath a key value node between 5660–5680. With thin volume below, the path toward 5630 and even lower levels could be quick.

• Bulls Couldn't Hold 5700:
  Another sign of weakness: bulls had their shot to reclaim 5700 but failed. That level now acts as resistance.

• Next Major Test: 5550–5543 (Weekly Open):
  With the current structure breaking down, the most likely next destination is the lower end of the range near the weekly open.

⏳ Watch for continued weakness below 5660. If momentum picks up, a flush into the 5550s becomes a high-probability move.